Market Diary

Is 2025 Echoing the Ghost of 2018? 📈 When the Market Rhymes: Is 2025 Echoing the Ghost of 2018? “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the S&P 500 is telling a story that feels strangely familiar. Through data, pattern recognition, and a little bit of historical hindsight, we may be witnessing a year that’s beginning to rhyme with 2018 — a year etched into memory for its deceptively stable beginning and dramatic fourth-quarter collapse. In this post, we’ll explore two key visualizations that help uncover the narrative of 2025 — and what it may be hinting at for the months ahead. 📊 A 15-Year Year-over-Year Performance Canvas This chart takes a bird’s-eye view of the S&P 500’s year-over-year (YoY) returns over the last 15 years. Each bar is color-coded: green for gains, red for losses. Values are labeled directly on the bars and are also revealed on hover. 📈 Key Price Acti...

📉 Daily Market Review – May 30, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – Friday, May 30, 2025 🧭 Market Recap: Post-Rally Weakness Creeps In After nearly six weeks of upward momentum , markets are beginning to show signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 Futures (ES) has started to grind lower , with Thursday confirming a potential sell signal — the first one since the buy trigger on April 14th . While one day doesn’t define a trend reversal, today's close will be critical to determine if this marks a broader downturn or just a short-term pause . CPCI: 0.90 – bullish internal sentiment VIX: 19 – complacency, not fear SKEW: 137 – neutral-bullish tail risk Fear & Greed Index: 64 – “Greed” zone So, while internals still lean bullish , price action is starting to diverge, a classic sign of a momentum slowdown . ⚙️ Technical Context & Market Internals Buy Signal: April 14 – ~1.5 mont...

🧭 Comprehensive Daily Market Review – May 19, 2025 🧭 Market Overview: S&P 500 Futures (ES) As of mid-morning, the S&P 500 futures market (ES) remains resilient despite early weakness. After falling 60 points overnight, the index has rebounded, now down just 10 points and trading above VWAP (5938) — a sign of short-term strength. Both short-term and long-term trends remain bullish , with this week’s expected range between 6042 (upside target) and 5857 (support) . Technicals show robust momentum but caution as resistance approaches. Key Resistance : 5950–6018 Support Zone : 5909–5927 Current Price : Above all key moving averages 20 SMA: +4% 50 SMA: +6.35% 200 SMA: +2.94% 📊 Technical Internals Indicator Reading Outlook MACD +39 Strong bullish momentum FDTS +23 Buy signal confirmed RSI 68.43 Approaching overbought CPCI 1.2 High hedging, cautious tone SKEW 136 Elevated tail-risk ...

Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025 Markets opened higher but quickly sold off , creating another choppy session . Despite brief rallies, all major timeframes remain downtrending . Friday’s close left the SPX at the first standard deviation of the 3-month range — suggesting volatility within normal but weakening conditions. 🔍 Technical Overview (SPX) Deviation from Key SMAs : 200-day SMA: -4% 50-day SMA: -2% 20-day SMA: +2% VWAP : 5,543 – Price is below VWAP , indicating intraday selling pressure FDTS : +45 points – strong short-term positive push MACD : crossed up +45 points – bullish bias, but momentum slowing RSI : 51 – out of oversold territory but no strong upside thrust yet Breadth : NYSE: 1.43 down : 1 up NASDAQ: ...

Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025 Markets opened cautiously higher today with /ES futures up just 3 points , signaling a breather after yesterday’s strong rally. While prices are inching higher, the broader trend across all timeframes remains down . The SPX is currently testing the first standard deviation range from the 3-month mean, indicating it's near a potential resistance zone in a bear market bounce. 🔍 Technical Overview (SPX) FDTS : +28 points – positive momentum, but within a downtrend MACD : +20 points above crossover – buy signal confirmed RSI : 30 – oversold territory, signaling potential bounce SMA Deviation : 200-day SMA: -6% 50-day SMA: -4% 20-day SMA: +0.23% VWAP : 5,390 Current Price : 5,448 (trading above VWAP) Resistance : Price...

Gold Futures Analysis - Record Highs and Investor Caution Gold Futures Analysis: Historic Highs Amid Market Uncertainty A Long Road to Record Highs Gold has always stood as a timeless symbol of value and a trusted hedge during economic instability. From ancient civilizations to modern markets, when uncertainty strikes, investors often flock to the yellow metal. In 2025, Gold futures are once again in the spotlight, reaching all-time highs, but this rally comes with critical nuances that investors must understand. A Historical Look at Gold Price Movements 1980–2002 : Gold traded in a tight consolidation range between $260 to $562 , showing little directional movement for over two decades. 2002–2011 : Gold began its breakout journey. Starting around $260 in 2002, prices surged to $1927 by 2011. 📈 ~641% increase in under a decade. 2011–2016 : A significant correction occurred, dragging prices down to $1061 . ...

c AMD- December 2024 Current Price Trends and Short-Term Analysis Hourly Chart (Short-Term) The short-term trend for AMD on the hourly chart is currently down , indicating some immediate bearish momentum. However, there are early signs of a turnaround as the price edges up from $132 toward the $145 level. Significant resistance exists at $145 , which will act as a crucial test for further upward momentum. Until AMD decisively breaks this level, the price action is likely to remain choppy and sideways . Immediate-Term Outlook In the immediate term, AMD appears to be stabilizing and attempting to shift upward. The current price action suggests that the stock may oscillate within the range of $132 to $145 in the short term, building a base for a potential breakout. Key resistance levels are $145, $150, and $155. Medium-Term (Three-Month Daily Chart) Trend Overview On the three-month daily chart, AMD exhibit...

Weekly Market Review - Week of September 29, 2024 Weekly Market Review - Week of September 29, 2024 Market Overview The market for the week of September 29, 2024, shows an uptrend across major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell. Short-term (hourly and daily) trends are up, with prices hovering around the mean. However, there are signs of exhaustion, particularly in the S&P 500, where key indicators suggest the potential for a pullback next week. Price Action and Trends Last week's price action indicated a slowdown, and the S&P 500 is showing signs of exhaustion. Indicators like the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are slowing down, suggesting that the price action may experience a choppy downturn. The Fast Day Trading System (FDTS) is signaling a closer breakdown, which indicates potential volatility in the coming days. While the short-term trends remain up, the m...

July 2024 Monthly and First Week of August Market Review July 2024 Monthly and First Week of August Market Review Monthly Performance Overview S&P 500 July 2024 was a positive month for the S&P 500, with the index closing up 61 points. Although this was the least performing month for the S&P 500 this year, the index managed to maintain its upward momentum. The best day for the S&P 500 was on July 31st, which saw an impressive gain of 85.86 points, ultimately saving the index's performance for the month. Dow Jones The Dow Jones had its best month of the year, surging 1723 points in July. This remarkable performance underscores the strength of blue-chip stocks, which outperformed other indices during the month. Nasdaq In contrast, the Nasdaq struggled in July, losing 133 points. This marks Nasdaq as the worst-performing major index for the month. The technology sector faced headwinds that dampe...

Weekly Market Review: July 22-26, 2024 Weekly Market Review: July 22-26, 2024 Introduction The week of July 22-26, 2024, was characterized by mixed performances across major indices, highlighting the market's fluctuating nature. While the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 managed to post gains, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 faced declines. This analysis will delve into the week’s price movements, market trends, breadth, correlations, and provide a forecast for the upcoming week. Price Movements Key Indices Performance Dow Jones : Up 301 points Nasdaq : Down 369 points Russell 2000 : Up 75 points S&P 500 (SPX) : Down 45 points The mixed results indicate a week of partial gains and losses, with the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 showing strength, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 struggled. Exhaustion Indicators S&P 500 : The price is currently at the second st...

Weekly Market Review: Week of July 7-13, 2024 Weekly Market Review: Week of July 7-13, 2024 Overview The week of July 7-13, 2024, saw positive movements across the major indices, with the Russell 2000 emerging as the standout performer. Here’s a breakdown of the weekly performance: Dow Jones : Up 625 points Nasdaq : Up 45 points Russell 2000 : Up 121 points S&P 500 (SPX) : Up 48 points The Russell 2000 showed significant strength, doubling its performance from the same week last year, moving up by 121 points compared to 62 points last year. This indicates a notable market rotation towards small-cap stocks, moving away from the high-tech or large-cap stocks primarily seen in the Nasdaq. Market Trends Index Trends S&P 500 and Nasdaq : The trends are consistently upward, from hourly to monthly charts. Russell 2000 : Although the daily tre...

Daily Market Report - July 11, 2024 Daily Market Report: July 11, 2024 Today’s market breadth showed significant divergence despite the major indices experiencing a sell-off. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by 49 points, and the Nasdaq (NDX) dropped by 464 points. In contrast, the Russell 2000 (RUT) rose by 73 points, indicating inverse behavior. Market Breadth Analysis Throughout the day, the majority of tick levels were positive, with numerous upticks surpassing +1,000, and very few downticks hitting -1,000. This suggests strong underlying buying pressure despite the overall negative performance of high-cap stocks. High-Cap Stock Performance High-cap technology stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Nvidia, Netflix, Amazon, Meta, Airbnb, and Adobe all saw declines. This sell-off in major tech stocks dragged the indices down significantly. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (RSP) The RSP, which equal...

Weekly Market Review: Closing the First Week of July 2024 Weekly Market Review: Closing the First Week of July 2024 Weekly Analysis: Week of July 1-5, 2024 This past week, the stock market had a short trading week due to the July 4th holiday. With only three and a half days of trading, the S&P 500 showed impressive gains, closing up 106 points. The Nasdaq also performed well, gaining 620 points, while the Russell 2000 fell by 21 points, indicating that small-cap stocks are not performing as well as their larger counterparts. Key Indices Performance S&P 500 : Up 106 points Nasdaq : Up 620 points Russell 2000 : Down 21 points The high market cap stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq drove these indices upwards. In contrast, the equally weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is downtrending, showing that smaller market cap stocks are not performing as well. Market Correlati...

Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Market Analysis: June 29, 2024 Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Market Analysis: June 29, 2024 Monthly Analysis: June 2024 As we close the month of June 2024, the stock market has shown a mixed performance. The S&P 500 increased by 182.96 points, indicating a strong month for large-cap stocks. The Nasdaq surged by 997 points, reflecting robust gains in the technology sector. However, the Russell 2000, which represents small-cap stocks, declined by 22.44 points, indicating a slowdown in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. The equally weighted S&P 500 (RSP) remained sideways to down throughout the month, forming a short-term bear flag. Weekly Analysis: Week of June 24-28, 2024 On a weekly basis, the market displayed a muted performance. The S&P 500 fell by 4 points, showing little movement. The Russell 2000, on the other hand, gained 25 points, suggesting a slight pickup in small-c...