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Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025

Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025

📉 Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025

Markets opened cautiously higher today with /ES futures up just 3 points, signaling a breather after yesterday’s strong rally. While prices are inching higher, the broader trend across all timeframes remains down. The SPX is currently testing the first standard deviation range from the 3-month mean, indicating it's near a potential resistance zone in a bear market bounce.

🔍 Technical Overview (SPX)

  • FDTS: +28 points – positive momentum, but within a downtrend
  • MACD: +20 points above crossover – buy signal confirmed
  • RSI: 30 – oversold territory, signaling potential bounce
  • SMA Deviation:
    • 200-day SMA: -6%
    • 50-day SMA: -4%
    • 20-day SMA: +0.23%
  • VWAP: 5,390
  • Current Price: 5,448 (trading above VWAP)
  • Resistance: Price has reached the weekly up range at 5,408, currently testing above it

➡️ The price action shows a technical buy signal, but in a downtrending market, every rip is getting sold. We're now hitting short-term resistance, so caution is warranted.

🧠 Market Sentiment & Internals

  • CPCI: 1.13 – moderate hedging activity
  • SKEW: 126 – tail risk ticking up
  • VIX: 27 – volatility cooling, but still elevated
  • Fear & Greed Index: 28 – still in fear, but improving

🌍 Global & Macro Snapshot

Markets rebounded yesterday on dovish trade talk and easing Fed fears:

  • Trump clarified there’s "no intention" to fire Powell
  • Tariffs on China will be lowered “substantially” – not 145% but also “not 0%”
  • Stocks surged across the board:
    • S&P 500: +2.51%
    • Dow Jones: +2.66%
    • NASDAQ: +2.71%

Globally:

  • CSI 300 (CH): +0.07%
  • STOXX 600 (EU): +1.78%
  • Hang Seng (HK): +2.37%

Economic Updates:

  • Freight volumes from China continue to fall – signaling supply chain pressures
  • The IMF raised U.S. recession odds to 37%
  • Gold surged again, nearing $3,400/oz, showing risk-off behavior

🏦 Sector Spotlight & Earnings

  • Tesla reported a 71% drop in net income, yet the stock rose on lowered expectations
  • RTX (Raytheon) warned of $850M in tariff losses
  • Boeing beat earnings and guided higher, despite some plane returns
  • Over 100 S&P 500 companies report this week – expect volatility

⚠️ Outlook

Despite today’s minor uptick, the macro backdrop is shaky.
The short-term technicals show some bounce potential, but we're still very much in a downtrend with heavy resistance overhead.

Caution is key. Until we see sustained improvement across trend, volatility, and sentiment indicators, upside moves are best viewed as rallies within a broader bear market.

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