📉 Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025
Markets opened cautiously higher today with /ES futures up just 3 points, signaling a breather after yesterday’s strong rally. While prices are inching higher, the broader trend across all timeframes remains down. The SPX is currently testing the first standard deviation range from the 3-month mean, indicating it's near a potential resistance zone in a bear market bounce.
🔍 Technical Overview (SPX)
- FDTS: +28 points – positive momentum, but within a downtrend
- MACD: +20 points above crossover – buy signal confirmed
- RSI: 30 – oversold territory, signaling potential bounce
- SMA Deviation:
- 200-day SMA: -6%
- 50-day SMA: -4%
- 20-day SMA: +0.23%
- VWAP: 5,390
- Current Price: 5,448 (trading above VWAP)
- Resistance: Price has reached the weekly up range at 5,408, currently testing above it
➡️ The price action shows a technical buy signal, but in a downtrending market, every rip is getting sold. We're now hitting short-term resistance, so caution is warranted.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Internals
- CPCI: 1.13 – moderate hedging activity
- SKEW: 126 – tail risk ticking up
- VIX: 27 – volatility cooling, but still elevated
- Fear & Greed Index: 28 – still in fear, but improving
🌍 Global & Macro Snapshot
Markets rebounded yesterday on dovish trade talk and easing Fed fears:
- Trump clarified there’s "no intention" to fire Powell
- Tariffs on China will be lowered “substantially” – not 145% but also “not 0%”
- Stocks surged across the board:
- S&P 500: +2.51%
- Dow Jones: +2.66%
- NASDAQ: +2.71%
Globally:
- CSI 300 (CH): +0.07%
- STOXX 600 (EU): +1.78%
- Hang Seng (HK): +2.37%
Economic Updates:
- Freight volumes from China continue to fall – signaling supply chain pressures
- The IMF raised U.S. recession odds to 37%
- Gold surged again, nearing $3,400/oz, showing risk-off behavior
🏦 Sector Spotlight & Earnings
- Tesla reported a 71% drop in net income, yet the stock rose on lowered expectations
- RTX (Raytheon) warned of $850M in tariff losses
- Boeing beat earnings and guided higher, despite some plane returns
- Over 100 S&P 500 companies report this week – expect volatility
⚠️ Outlook
Despite today’s minor uptick, the macro backdrop is shaky.
The short-term technicals show some bounce potential, but we're still very much in a downtrend with heavy resistance overhead.
Caution is key. Until we see sustained improvement across trend, volatility, and sentiment indicators, upside moves are best viewed as rallies within a broader bear market.