Market Diary

Weekly Market Analysis Weekly Analysis This week marked the first week of 2024 and the market experienced its first weekly red candle after a 9-week bullish streak. Despite the downturn in the early part of the week, Friday saw a bounce back, primarily due to the exhaustion of sellers. Notably, the price dipped below the Market Maker Move of 4717, prompting hedging by professionals at this level. Interestingly, there was an absence of professional sellers, and retail participants maintained a bullish outlook, typically lagging behind the market's movements. Technical Indicators Overview Focusing on the technical indicators, the Fazdane crossover for the week remained positive, and the MACD did not cross lower. These indicators suggest a continued positive trend. Although the week ended on a bearish note, there was no confirmed sell signal. However, if the selling trend continues into the next week, it could evolve into a con...

Weekly Market Analysis: Navigating Trends and Risks Navigating Trends and Risks In our recent discussions, we've delved into the intricacies of market trends and pattern formations. However, in this post, let's explore additional observations gleaned from the weekly charts. The prevailing trend remains bullish, with the market exhibiting strength for the past nine consecutive weeks, a noteworthy feat not witnessed in over two decades. The immediate upside forecast points to 4818, with further potential gains toward 4915. Downside Risk Analysis: Momentum Divergence: An initial concern arises from the observed momentum divergence. Both MACD and RSI oscillators indicate downward momentum, while actual price movements suggest an upward trajectory. This divergence tends to self-correct over time, but it poses a potential downside risk, and careful monitoring is warranted. SPX Performance Discrepancy: Analyzing th...

Daily and Weekly Summation indexes are in oversold area and expecting a bullish movement, at least weekly summation index gets 485 level and daily become overbought area.

NYSI - daily is setting up a bullish movement in the market .. I think market will move until VIX turn to 13-14 range and will chop toward sideways to UP.. Waiting for Thursday to get some puts for "Linked in" !!

Market was extremely choppy in last two weeks. Will that continue ? I think there are more down side risk than up side !! due to following reasons 1. In SPX intraday chart, showing a Head and Shoulder pattern. Pattern is not valid until price break down 1332. It can happen in next week. 2. VIX is in supporting area (15-17) . Upper resistance is 26 3. Dollar (/DX) is going UP ( when dollar UP equity will go down) 4. Copper is a leader of $SPX, which is going down. If Market is going down from Monday, good support will be 1300. and Next turn could be June 6 TH. (Moon Cycle) HhhhMMMMMMM... Well said, What .. if more buyers show up and bears are hesitate to sell this market ? !! In daily $SPX, now price is in diagonal support. If more buyers show up next up side resistance is 1370. If that happen, Market will be more bullish and see higher highs and lower lows.. My Bullish Bets :PCLN,ISRG,CMG,MA,NFLX,IBM,CF,SINA,SOHU,SLV,NKE My Bearish Bets :GOOG,GS,SPY,FSLR,AEM,X

Following chart could be a future look like, by analyzing the price movement of the spider.

In all major indexes, H&S pattern is forming on top of the chart, will be emphasize the significance of the pull back in equity market.

$NYHL NYSE New Highs- New Lows Index is new 2 year high. means most of the equities are new highs than new lows.. No fear in the market and everybody is buying..

Pottash, and First Solar are turning around from the support

2553 is the next level to watch.. If break down of 2484 will lead a small pull back towards 2412

Russell is leading in whole market, 765 is the next level need to watch. If break down of 717 will lead to pull back towards 694.

Dow is strong bullish in pattern. Next level 11883. Watch 11068 break a short term pull back towards 10891. Probability : 80 % - UP 20 % Down

Spider will get into next level, if spx broke up1220.32, Next level will be 1312. Watch 1200, if spx broke down, there will be short term pull back towards 1130. Probability : 70 % UP and 30 % Down

VIX is in a down trend from March lows of 2009. In last bull market VIX was in 10 -15 range for about 3-4 Years. Now VIX is getting there. So are we starting 3-5 years Bull to sideways market ? If so dust off our Iron Condor strategies !!

Watch for healthy pull backs of following equities for your long term portfolio

Friday Spider closed at resistance and made double top. VIX is in very good support area as well. What is next ? Most probably we can see a small pull back to 103-102 level in spider and pushing UP towards 115-117 range

When I am doing my weekly analysis, I came across long term DOW, It seems to be interesting. Every Long Bull market there are a 15-20 years of sideways period. If market went away from the trend line eventually market will adjust by itself to catch up by trend line. Now Trend line is 4103 for Dow or we have to go through 10 more years sideways to catch up the trend line. What will happen ? Wait and see...

DON'T SURPRICE IF MARKET TURN AROUND LIKE THIS ..!!