Market Diary

Analyst are predicting 2010 is some sort of 2004 reflection year in the market. If that is true, In 2004 March 5 TH market topped to 1163 and on March 24 Th Market Bottom on 1085, about 80 point down movement. If this movement is repeating in 2010 March 5 Th market top was yesterday about 1138 , and we can see down movement starting next week onwards .

Gold Bullish Flag

Previously I posted this chart. Now Gold broke reverse H&S pattern in 5 year chart. I think Gold will run more than we expect. When analyze cycle chart of Gold , Gold used to pull back last week of October.

TRADE IDEA FROM MARK ==================== I wanted to offer a trade idea and get your feedback. It’s a small $1 iron condor spread on the IWM September quarterly’s, so it’s over in a relatively short time, but has a potential decent return. Although the IWM has been going up pretty strong the past two weeks (see chart below), I’m expecting a leveling out or lower rate of increase over the next 15 days which should keep it within the IC range. The credit is $.28, not a huge amount, but still decent for the risk. Remarks : Looks good to me. Range of IWM by 10/1 , I am expecting between 61 -58

If GLD Broke UP 100, chart will be valid inverse H&S for Gold..

When I was doing a long term analysis (10 Yrs) of S&P 500, I noticed that in 2000-2003 recession, S&P 500 down from 1552.87 to 938.02 and retrace to 1172.89 (38.2 %) and went back to 765.89 (18 % lower than the previous low), Market retested this support couple of times in 2003 . If History repeat by itself this time , IF IF... in 2009 Market touched 666 and went back to 1040 level (38.2 %) and coming down (if so).. If Market came down like last recession , we can expect around 18 % lower than 666 approximately 540 level !!! Will that happen ? What you think .. I need active participation from each and every one from the group, What is your opinion.. ?

VIX is breaking down to new lower ranges..

I am not used to watch tech. indicators in VIX.. even though when I saw this reverse H&S in VIX I would like to post.. My assumption in VIX, will hit 50 s.. by September.. New range of VIX will be 20- 50..

VIX is heading to 33 to Upper band

The reversal day (to down) of POT is July 8 TH to July 17 th. Current range in POT is 95.57- 89.37

VIX touched 26.39, a major support for VIX for long time; as well as broke the lower bollinger band. Could VIX go down again.. ? historically if VIX touch like this, then there are more chances to bounce back. Good examples - 5/20, 6/11

Beware !! Spider Double top on Hourly chart..

Resistance 957.89 - 5 times hit in 97, 3 times hit in 2000-2003,2 times hit in 2009 (almost) Supports 882.47 - 1997 - 1 Time, 2000-2003 - 4 Times, 2009- 2 Times 666.56 1997 - 5 Times , 2009 - 1 Time 474.98 - 1994 - 4 Times

When we over analyze things, we shouldn't forget our basics ..

Today's close become clear that we are going to bearish mode. Acceleration mid band broke to down and Williams % R towards down . (cross the mid point)

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