Market Diary

Posts

MicroStrategy’s Reinvention: From Enterprise Software to a Bitcoin Treasury Experiment

From Software Roots to a Radical Pivot MicroStrategy’s transformation into Strategy stands as one of the most unconventional corporate evolutions in modern markets. Founded in 1989 as a business-intelligence software company, the firm spent decades building enterprise analytics tools and navigating traditional tech-sector cycles. The pivotal moment arrived in 2020, when aggressive monetary expansion and collapsing real yields forced a rethink of balance-sheet strategy. Rather than pursue buybacks, acquisitions, or dividends, management chose Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset—a decision shaped by long institutional memory and a deep awareness of capital-markets credibility forged during the dot-com era. The Bitcoin Treasury Flywheel Following that decision, Strategy engineered a repeatable capital-markets framework centered on Bitcoin accumulation. By issuing equity at market premiums and raising zero-coupon conve...

Inside the 2026 Market Cycle: Volatility, Opportunity, and Trend Reversal

Market Outlook – Cycle Modeling, Analog Analysis & Trading Playbook 2026 Market Outlook: - A Cycle-Based Framework for the Coming Inflection Year By FazDane Analytics – Gann Cycles • SPX Analog Modeling • Macro Liquidity Signals Introduction Financial markets rarely move randomly. Beneath the volatility and narrative noise, long-term structural cycles tend to repeat in surprisingly consistent patterns. Using W.D. Gann’s time-cycle matrix, liquidity-driven analogs, and historical SPX behavior, 2026 emerges as one of the most important inflection years of the decade. The Gann row containing 2026 links directly to some of the most consequential years in market history: 1913 → 1932 → 1950 → 1969 → 1987 → 2006 → 2008 → 2026 These years include major tops, bottoms, crashes, liquidity contractions, and generational turning points. Together they form the backbone of the 2026 Analog SPX Model , a statistically meaningful roadmap for how markets may behave thro...

S&P 500 Mid-Term Election Seasonality

Mid-Term Election Year Market Insight A review of monthly S&P 500 performance across the last ten U.S. mid-term election years reveals a consistent pattern of elevated volatility, deep mid-year drawdowns, and powerful late-year recoveries . Mid-term years commonly begin with weakness, as January and February frequently tilt negative due to policy uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and shifts in fiscal expectations ahead of elections. The heatmap highlights that the second and third quarters (May through September) tend to be the most fragile part of the cycle, often producing clusters of materially negative returns. This behavior was especially pronounced in historically stressed mid-term years such as 2002, 1998, 2010, 2018, and 2022 , when monthly declines reached as low as –8% to –14%. Despite these mid-year selloffs, the data strongly confirms the well-known mid-term election year rebound effect . After September, markets typically transition into a p...

Gold’s Rising Momentum: Technical Structure and Macro Outlook for 2025

Gold Market Review – November 2025 | FazDane Analytics Gold Market Review – November 2025 By FazDane Analytics Preface After a sharp selloff from early October into November, gold has begun to recover toward its mean level, regaining technical stability and re-establishing key trend relationships. This market review evaluates gold’s current price structure, technical posture, correlation regime shifts, and long-term macro pattern — providing a comprehensive understanding of where gold stands and what risks lie ahead. 📌 Current Price Snapshot Gold is currently trading around 4084 , recovering from its recent drawdown and drifting back toward key moving averages and VWAP levels. Despite recent volatility, momentum is beginning to shift upward, and the balance of probabilities favors a near-term continuation of the rebound. Key Levels R...

Daily Market Overview

📉 Daily Market Review – May 30, 2025 📰 Daily Market Overview – June 23, 2025 📊 Market Sentiment & Price Action After seven consecutive weeks of dull, grinding market action, the broader indices remain technically in uptrends , but underlying momentum is clearly fading. While June is still up about 1% on the S&P 500 , the market tone has shifted. MACD and Zero Lag Moving Average (ZLMA) have both turned negative, flashing confirmed sell signals . Price action is weak and slightly below mean regression, though still hovering above VWAP across major ETFs like SPY, QQQ, and IWM . Fear & Greed Index: 55 (Neutral-Greedy) CPCI: 1.2 (Moderate hedging) VIX: 20s (Caution) SKEW: 149 (Elevated tail risk) 🔍 Technicals Summary Ticker Trend MACD ZLMA RSI VWAP Regression IWM Uptrend Neg...

When the Market Rhymes

Is 2025 Echoing the Ghost of 2018? 📈 When the Market Rhymes: Is 2025 Echoing the Ghost of 2018? “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the S&P 500 is telling a story that feels strangely familiar. Through data, pattern recognition, and a little bit of historical hindsight, we may be witnessing a year that’s beginning to rhyme with 2018 — a year etched into memory for its deceptively stable beginning and dramatic fourth-quarter collapse. In this post, we’ll explore two key visualizations that help uncover the narrative of 2025 — and what it may be hinting at for the months ahead. 📊 A 15-Year Year-over-Year Performance Canvas This chart takes a bird’s-eye view of the S&P 500’s year-over-year (YoY) returns over the last 15 years. Each bar is color-coded: green for gains, red for losses. Values are labeled directly on the bars and are also revealed on hover. 📈 Key Price Acti...

Daily Market Review

📉 Daily Market Review – May 30, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – Friday, May 30, 2025 🧭 Market Recap: Post-Rally Weakness Creeps In After nearly six weeks of upward momentum , markets are beginning to show signs of fatigue. The S&P 500 Futures (ES) has started to grind lower , with Thursday confirming a potential sell signal — the first one since the buy trigger on April 14th . While one day doesn’t define a trend reversal, today's close will be critical to determine if this marks a broader downturn or just a short-term pause . CPCI: 0.90 – bullish internal sentiment VIX: 19 – complacency, not fear SKEW: 137 – neutral-bullish tail risk Fear & Greed Index: 64 – “Greed” zone So, while internals still lean bullish , price action is starting to diverge, a classic sign of a momentum slowdown . ⚙️ Technical Context & Market Internals Buy Signal: April 14 – ~1.5 mont...

Market Review -May 19, 2025

🧭 Comprehensive Daily Market Review – May 19, 2025 🧭 Market Overview: S&P 500 Futures (ES) As of mid-morning, the S&P 500 futures market (ES) remains resilient despite early weakness. After falling 60 points overnight, the index has rebounded, now down just 10 points and trading above VWAP (5938) — a sign of short-term strength. Both short-term and long-term trends remain bullish , with this week’s expected range between 6042 (upside target) and 5857 (support) . Technicals show robust momentum but caution as resistance approaches. Key Resistance : 5950–6018 Support Zone : 5909–5927 Current Price : Above all key moving averages 20 SMA: +4% 50 SMA: +6.35% 200 SMA: +2.94% 📊 Technical Internals Indicator Reading Outlook MACD +39 Strong bullish momentum FDTS +23 Buy signal confirmed RSI 68.43 Approaching overbought CPCI 1.2 High hedging, cautious tone SKEW 136 Elevated tail-risk ...

April 28, 2025

Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025 Markets opened higher but quickly sold off , creating another choppy session . Despite brief rallies, all major timeframes remain downtrending . Friday’s close left the SPX at the first standard deviation of the 3-month range — suggesting volatility within normal but weakening conditions. 🔍 Technical Overview (SPX) Deviation from Key SMAs : 200-day SMA: -4% 50-day SMA: -2% 20-day SMA: +2% VWAP : 5,543 – Price is below VWAP , indicating intraday selling pressure FDTS : +45 points – strong short-term positive push MACD : crossed up +45 points – bullish bias, but momentum slowing RSI : 51 – out of oversold territory but no strong upside thrust yet Breadth : NYSE: 1.43 down : 1 up NASDAQ: ...

Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025

Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025 📉 Daily Market Review – April 24, 2025 Markets opened cautiously higher today with /ES futures up just 3 points , signaling a breather after yesterday’s strong rally. While prices are inching higher, the broader trend across all timeframes remains down . The SPX is currently testing the first standard deviation range from the 3-month mean, indicating it's near a potential resistance zone in a bear market bounce. 🔍 Technical Overview (SPX) FDTS : +28 points – positive momentum, but within a downtrend MACD : +20 points above crossover – buy signal confirmed RSI : 30 – oversold territory, signaling potential bounce SMA Deviation : 200-day SMA: -6% 50-day SMA: -4% 20-day SMA: +0.23% VWAP : 5,390 Current Price : 5,448 (trading above VWAP) Resistance : Price...

Gold - Record Highs

Gold Futures Analysis - Record Highs and Investor Caution Gold Futures Analysis: Historic Highs Amid Market Uncertainty A Long Road to Record Highs Gold has always stood as a timeless symbol of value and a trusted hedge during economic instability. From ancient civilizations to modern markets, when uncertainty strikes, investors often flock to the yellow metal. In 2025, Gold futures are once again in the spotlight, reaching all-time highs, but this rally comes with critical nuances that investors must understand. A Historical Look at Gold Price Movements 1980–2002 : Gold traded in a tight consolidation range between $260 to $562 , showing little directional movement for over two decades. 2002–2011 : Gold began its breakout journey. Starting around $260 in 2002, prices surged to $1927 by 2011. 📈 ~641% increase in under a decade. 2011–2016 : A significant correction occurred, dragging prices down to $1061 . ...

AMD Technical Analysis

c AMD- December 2024 Current Price Trends and Short-Term Analysis Hourly Chart (Short-Term) The short-term trend for AMD on the hourly chart is currently down , indicating some immediate bearish momentum. However, there are early signs of a turnaround as the price edges up from $132 toward the $145 level. Significant resistance exists at $145 , which will act as a crucial test for further upward momentum. Until AMD decisively breaks this level, the price action is likely to remain choppy and sideways . Immediate-Term Outlook In the immediate term, AMD appears to be stabilizing and attempting to shift upward. The current price action suggests that the stock may oscillate within the range of $132 to $145 in the short term, building a base for a potential breakout. Key resistance levels are $145, $150, and $155. Medium-Term (Three-Month Daily Chart) Trend Overview On the three-month daily chart, AMD exhibit...

Market Review for the Week of September 29, 2024: Bulls Hold Momentum, But Bears Loom Ahead

Weekly Market Review - Week of September 29, 2024 Weekly Market Review - Week of September 29, 2024 Market Overview The market for the week of September 29, 2024, shows an uptrend across major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell. Short-term (hourly and daily) trends are up, with prices hovering around the mean. However, there are signs of exhaustion, particularly in the S&P 500, where key indicators suggest the potential for a pullback next week. Price Action and Trends Last week's price action indicated a slowdown, and the S&P 500 is showing signs of exhaustion. Indicators like the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) are slowing down, suggesting that the price action may experience a choppy downturn. The Fast Day Trading System (FDTS) is signaling a closer breakdown, which indicates potential volatility in the coming days. While the short-term trends remain up, the m...