Gold Market Review – November 2025
By FazDane Analytics
Preface
After a sharp selloff from early October into November, gold has begun to recover toward its mean level, regaining technical stability and re-establishing key trend relationships. This market review evaluates gold’s current price structure, technical posture, correlation regime shifts, and long-term macro pattern — providing a comprehensive understanding of where gold stands and what risks lie ahead.
📌 Current Price Snapshot
Gold is currently trading around 4084, recovering from its recent drawdown and drifting back toward key moving averages and VWAP levels. Despite recent volatility, momentum is beginning to shift upward, and the balance of probabilities favors a near-term continuation of the rebound.
Key Levels
- Resistance 1: 4299
- Support 1: 3875
- Resistance 2: 4573
- Support 2: 3625
The immediate swing structure suggests a slight upward bias, but with a 5% downside risk. Any long positioning should account for the possibility of a retest near the 3880 zone.
📈 Moving Average Structure
Gold’s price is supported by a constructive moving-average alignment:
- Above 20 SMA by +0.21%
- Above 50 SMA by +3% (50 SMA = 3959)
- Above 200 SMA by +16% (200 SMA = 3419)
This configuration reflects a bullish-to-neutral medium-term trend. The slope and spacing of the averages suggest that gold remains in a supportive environment, though momentum will require confirmation above VWAP.
📊 VWAP Readings
- VWAP: 4114
- Price: 4084
Gold is currently below VWAP, indicating that short-term buyers need to regain control. A close above VWAP will strengthen the probability of continuation toward the 4299 resistance.
🔄 Correlation Analysis: A Year of Diverging Relationships
Gold’s relationship with equities has undergone a complete cycle in 2025 — shifting from inverse correlation to strong positive correlation.
Quarterly Breakdown
Q1 2025 – Inverse Correlation (Hedge Mode)
Equities were strong, and gold served its classic role as a
negative-correlated hedge.
Correlation: –24% to –49% range
Q2 2025 – Strong Inverse Correlation
Markets accelerated, and gold moved deeper into hedge territory. This amplified the defensive value of gold in portfolios.
Q3 2025 – Neutral Regime
Choppy, rotational equity activity flattened gold’s correlation. Neither instrument led the other; relationship drifted to neutral.
Q4 2025 – Positive Correlation (Liquidity Surge)
A macro-liquidity push during October–November synchronized risk assets.
Gold correlation with equities surged to +82%.
This means:
- Market up = Gold up
- Market down = Gold down
This correlation shift reflects global liquidity expansion rather than risk-off hedging.
🌍 Macro View: Multi-Decade Gold Pattern
Gold’s long-term price history shows powerful cyclical behavior:
- 1975–1979 – Major supercycle peak in 1979.
- 1980–2004 – Multi-decade stagnation and consolidation.
- 2004–2011 – Massive bull run into 2011 highs.
- 2011–2015 – Sharp retrace.
- 2015–2019 – Gradual recovery, building a structural base.
- 2019–2021 – Sideways consolidation, preparing for major breakout.
- 2021–2025 – Explosive rally from 1693 → 4398, forming a multi-year Cup & Handle breakout.
This Cup & Handle (2011–2023) was one of the largest structural formations in gold history, and the breakout drove the enormous 2021–2025 upside extension.
📉 Major Structural Risk Levels
Despite the strong long-term pattern, major retracement levels remain critical:
- 3769 – First major structural support
- 2731 – Deeper cyclical support
- 2090 (Neckline) – Long-term base of the Cup & Handle
Gold may eventually retest 2090 during a long consolidation window (estimate: 2026–2032). If this occurs, the market will likely move sideways for an extended period before the next long-term advance.
📌 Summary of Immediate Outlook
- Gold is rebounding from a correction and approaching key resistance.
- Moving averages are supportive; VWAP needs reclaiming for bullish confirmation.
- Current correlation with equities is strongly positive, reversing its traditional hedge behavior.
- Long-term macro structure remains bullish, but downside risk zones must be respected.
🧭 Conclusion
Gold has navigated a volatile year marked by correlation reversals, macro liquidity shifts, and a powerful multi-year technical pattern. While the near-term trend shows signs of recovery with supportive moving averages, traders must remain aware of the 5% downside risk and the significance of the 3875 support zone.
The broader structural landscape continues to favor gold as a long-term macro asset, though short-term movements will depend heavily on equity correlation and liquidity dynamics. As markets transition into year-end and liquidity remains elevated, gold’s behavior may mirror equities — but long-term retracement zones remind us that gold is still a cyclical asset with deep consolidation tendencies.
With these insights, gold stands at a pivotal moment: short-term strength, medium-term volatility, and long-term structural potential.