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Will History repeat by itself ?

When I was doing a long term analysis (10 Yrs) of S&P 500, I noticed that in 2000-2003 recession,
S&P 500 down from 1552.87 to 938.02 and retrace to 1172.89 (38.2 %) and went back to 765.89 (18 % lower than the previous low), Market retested this support couple of times in 2003 .

If History repeat by itself this time , IF IF... in 2009 Market touched 666 and went back to 1040 level (38.2 %) and coming down (if so).. If Market came down like last recession , we can expect around 18 % lower than 666 approximately 540 level !!!

Will that happen ? What you think ..
I need active participation from each and every one from the group, What is your opinion.. ?
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