Skip to main content

April 28, 2025

Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025

📉 Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025

Markets opened higher but quickly sold off, creating another choppy session. Despite brief rallies, all major timeframes remain downtrending. Friday’s close left the SPX at the first standard deviation of the 3-month range — suggesting volatility within normal but weakening conditions.

🔍 Technical Overview (SPX)

  • Deviation from Key SMAs:
    • 200-day SMA: -4%
    • 50-day SMA: -2%
    • 20-day SMA: +2%
  • VWAP: 5,543 – Price is below VWAP, indicating intraday selling pressure
  • FDTS: +45 points – strong short-term positive push
  • MACD: crossed up +45 points – bullish bias, but momentum slowing
  • RSI: 51 – out of oversold territory but no strong upside thrust yet
  • Breadth:
    • NYSE: 1.43 down : 1 up
    • NASDAQ: 1.24 down : 1 up
    • Tick: -665 (bearish tilt)
    • ADD: -504 (weak internals)

➡️ Takeaway: Technicals are trying to firm up, but overall internals remain fragile, suggesting any rallies should be treated cautiously.

🧠 Market Sentiment & Internals

  • CPCI: 1.08 – moderate demand for protection
  • SKEW: 132 – moderate tail risk rising
  • VIX: 26 – slightly elevated, reflecting cautious sentiment
  • Fear & Greed Index: 35 – improving from extreme fear, but still fragile

🌎 Global & Macro Snapshot

  • S&P 500: +0.74%
  • Dow Jones: +0.05%
  • NASDAQ: +1.26%

International Markets:

  • CSI 300 (CH): +0.07%
  • STOXX 600 (EU): +0.35%
  • Hang Seng (HK): +0.32%

Macro Highlights:

  • China eases tariffs on semiconductors and pharma imports.
  • Global freight traffic from China drops sharply — potential future supply chain issues.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent optimistic about Asian trade deals (India, South Korea).
  • Ken Griffin criticizes tariffs, says U.S. needs to focus beyond manufacturing jobs.
  • Airlines report weaker "revenge travel" demand heading into summer.

🏦 Sector Spotlight & Earnings

  • Charter Communications (CHTR) jumped +11.43% after strong earnings.
  • Google’s Chrome browser may face forced divestiture — OpenAI and Yahoo interested buyers.
  • EV Space: Jeff Bezos backs new EV startup "Slate" aimed at undercutting Rivian and Tesla with $25k trucks.

🏠 Real Estate Snapshot

Mortgage Rates:

  • 30-year fixed: 6.84%
  • 15-year fixed: 6.25%

Market Trends:

  • Home prices continue to rise modestly: +4.6% YoY, but growth rate slowing.
  • New home sales outperform existing home sales with a 7.4% monthly increase.
  • States like South Carolina, Iowa, and Texas seen as “housing MVPs” due to affordability and building activity.

Rental Market:

  • Rents rise to $2,005/month median — near record highs.
  • 29.4% of median income now goes to rent, nearing affordability stress thresholds.

Takeaway: Real estate remains under mild pressure from rates, but supply growth is softening price surges slightly.

💰 Crypto Corner

  • Bitcoin (BTC): $94,326 (-0.40%)
  • Ethereum (ETH): $1,801 (-1.14%)
  • XRP: $2.27 (+3.67%)

Key Moves:

  • Bitcoin has its biggest weekly gain since November, helped by strong market momentum and ETF inflows ($2.7B last week).
  • DeFi Development plans a $1B raise to buy more Solana — reflecting continued institutional appetite for altcoins.
  • Regulatory sentiment still cautious but improving slightly, especially for Bitcoin-related financial products.

Takeaway: Crypto remains a relative outperformer compared to equities — especially Bitcoin — as investors seek alternatives amidst dollar weakness.

⚠️ Overall Outlook

Markets are trying to form a bottoming pattern, but all trends remain technically down for now. Sentiment is gradually improving (Fear & Greed rising from extreme fear), but breadth and volume show continued fragility.

Rallies may remain opportunities for tactical trades, not long-term buys yet, until stronger confirmations develop.

Popular posts from this blog

IWM IC

TRADE IDEA FROM MARK ==================== I wanted to offer a trade idea and get your feedback. It’s a small $1 iron condor spread on the IWM September quarterly’s, so it’s over in a relatively short time, but has a potential decent return. Although the IWM has been going up pretty strong the past two weeks (see chart below), I’m expecting a leveling out or lower rate of increase over the next 15 days which should keep it within the IC range. The credit is $.28, not a huge amount, but still decent for the risk. Remarks : Looks good to me. Range of IWM by 10/1 , I am expecting between 61 -58
Read more

Gold - Record Highs

Gold Futures Analysis - Record Highs and Investor Caution Gold Futures Analysis: Historic Highs Amid Market Uncertainty A Long Road to Record Highs Gold has always stood as a timeless symbol of value and a trusted hedge during economic instability. From ancient civilizations to modern markets, when uncertainty strikes, investors often flock to the yellow metal. In 2025, Gold futures are once again in the spotlight, reaching all-time highs, but this rally comes with critical nuances that investors must understand. A Historical Look at Gold Price Movements 1980–2002 : Gold traded in a tight consolidation range between $260 to $562 , showing little directional movement for over two decades. 2002–2011 : Gold began its breakout journey. Starting around $260 in 2002, prices surged to $1927 by 2011. 📈 ~641% increase in under a decade. 2011–2016 : A significant correction occurred, dragging prices down to $1061 . ...
Read more

Inside the 2026 Market Cycle: Volatility, Opportunity, and Trend Reversal

Market Outlook – Cycle Modeling, Analog Analysis & Trading Playbook 2026 Market Outlook: - A Cycle-Based Framework for the Coming Inflection Year By FazDane Analytics – Gann Cycles • SPX Analog Modeling • Macro Liquidity Signals Introduction Financial markets rarely move randomly. Beneath the volatility and narrative noise, long-term structural cycles tend to repeat in surprisingly consistent patterns. Using W.D. Gann’s time-cycle matrix, liquidity-driven analogs, and historical SPX behavior, 2026 emerges as one of the most important inflection years of the decade. The Gann row containing 2026 links directly to some of the most consequential years in market history: 1913 → 1932 → 1950 → 1969 → 1987 → 2006 → 2008 → 2026 These years include major tops, bottoms, crashes, liquidity contractions, and generational turning points. Together they form the backbone of the 2026 Analog SPX Model , a statistically meaningful roadmap for how markets may behave thro...
Read more