📉 Daily Market Review – April 28, 2025
Markets opened higher but quickly sold off, creating another choppy session. Despite brief rallies, all major timeframes remain downtrending. Friday’s close left the SPX at the first standard deviation of the 3-month range — suggesting volatility within normal but weakening conditions.
🔍 Technical Overview (SPX)
- Deviation from Key SMAs:
- 200-day SMA: -4%
- 50-day SMA: -2%
- 20-day SMA: +2%
- VWAP: 5,543 – Price is below VWAP, indicating intraday selling pressure
- FDTS: +45 points – strong short-term positive push
- MACD: crossed up +45 points – bullish bias, but momentum slowing
- RSI: 51 – out of oversold territory but no strong upside thrust yet
- Breadth:
- NYSE: 1.43 down : 1 up
- NASDAQ: 1.24 down : 1 up
- Tick: -665 (bearish tilt)
- ADD: -504 (weak internals)
➡️ Takeaway: Technicals are trying to firm up, but overall internals remain fragile, suggesting any rallies should be treated cautiously.
🧠 Market Sentiment & Internals
- CPCI: 1.08 – moderate demand for protection
- SKEW: 132 – moderate tail risk rising
- VIX: 26 – slightly elevated, reflecting cautious sentiment
- Fear & Greed Index: 35 – improving from extreme fear, but still fragile
🌎 Global & Macro Snapshot
- S&P 500: +0.74%
- Dow Jones: +0.05%
- NASDAQ: +1.26%
International Markets:
- CSI 300 (CH): +0.07%
- STOXX 600 (EU): +0.35%
- Hang Seng (HK): +0.32%
Macro Highlights:
- China eases tariffs on semiconductors and pharma imports.
- Global freight traffic from China drops sharply — potential future supply chain issues.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent optimistic about Asian trade deals (India, South Korea).
- Ken Griffin criticizes tariffs, says U.S. needs to focus beyond manufacturing jobs.
- Airlines report weaker "revenge travel" demand heading into summer.
🏦 Sector Spotlight & Earnings
- Charter Communications (CHTR) jumped +11.43% after strong earnings.
- Google’s Chrome browser may face forced divestiture — OpenAI and Yahoo interested buyers.
- EV Space: Jeff Bezos backs new EV startup "Slate" aimed at undercutting Rivian and Tesla with $25k trucks.
🏠 Real Estate Snapshot
Mortgage Rates:
- 30-year fixed: 6.84%
- 15-year fixed: 6.25%
Market Trends:
- Home prices continue to rise modestly: +4.6% YoY, but growth rate slowing.
- New home sales outperform existing home sales with a 7.4% monthly increase.
- States like South Carolina, Iowa, and Texas seen as “housing MVPs” due to affordability and building activity.
Rental Market:
- Rents rise to $2,005/month median — near record highs.
- 29.4% of median income now goes to rent, nearing affordability stress thresholds.
Takeaway: Real estate remains under mild pressure from rates, but supply growth is softening price surges slightly.
💰 Crypto Corner
- Bitcoin (BTC): $94,326 (-0.40%)
- Ethereum (ETH): $1,801 (-1.14%)
- XRP: $2.27 (+3.67%)
Key Moves:
- Bitcoin has its biggest weekly gain since November, helped by strong market momentum and ETF inflows ($2.7B last week).
- DeFi Development plans a $1B raise to buy more Solana — reflecting continued institutional appetite for altcoins.
- Regulatory sentiment still cautious but improving slightly, especially for Bitcoin-related financial products.
Takeaway: Crypto remains a relative outperformer compared to equities — especially Bitcoin — as investors seek alternatives amidst dollar weakness.
⚠️ Overall Outlook
Markets are trying to form a bottoming pattern, but all trends remain technically down for now. Sentiment is gradually improving (Fear & Greed rising from extreme fear), but breadth and volume show continued fragility.
Rallies may remain opportunities for tactical trades, not long-term buys yet, until stronger confirmations develop.