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Market Review -May 19, 2025

🧭 Comprehensive Daily Market Review – May 19, 2025

🧭 Market Overview: S&P 500 Futures (ES)

As of mid-morning, the S&P 500 futures market (ES) remains resilient despite early weakness. After falling 60 points overnight, the index has rebounded, now down just 10 points and trading above VWAP (5938) — a sign of short-term strength. Both short-term and long-term trends remain bullish, with this week’s expected range between 6042 (upside target) and 5857 (support). Technicals show robust momentum but caution as resistance approaches.

  • Key Resistance: 5950–6018
  • Support Zone: 5909–5927
  • Current Price: Above all key moving averages
    • 20 SMA: +4%
    • 50 SMA: +6.35%
    • 200 SMA: +2.94%

📊 Technical Internals

IndicatorReadingOutlook
MACD+39Strong bullish momentum
FDTS+23Buy signal confirmed
RSI68.43Approaching overbought
CPCI1.2High hedging, cautious tone
SKEW136Elevated tail-risk hedging
VIX18.27Low-moderate volatility

🔮 Forecast Bias: Bullish across all timeframes, though a cool-off or consolidation phase is possible as the market nears resistance zones and time-based Gann reversal windows (May 19–22).

🔁 Technical Trend Triggers & Timing (Gann Insights)

  • Major Gann timing windows converge this week:
    • 90-day high-to-high on May 20
    • 45-day low-to-low on May 22
    • Rebel Yell cycle active through May 19–22
  • 5950–5965 represents important resistance based on Gann square levels.
  • A break below 5909 would suggest downside reversal, while holding above 5927 keeps upside bias alive.

📌 Watchlist for Key Levels:

  • Upside: 5950, 5965, 5990, 6018, 6042
  • Downside: 5927, 5909 (break triggers bearish shift)

🌍 Macro & Economic Outlook

Economic data signals caution despite bullish equities:

  • U.S. Factory Output: Slowed in April amid tariff-induced cost pressures
  • Consumer Sentiment: Weakening; inflation expectations rising toward 1980s levels
  • Moody's U.S. Credit Downgrade: Now priced in, but raises long-term fiscal concerns
  • Gold ($3,240): Strong, gaining as a hedge asset amid debt fears

Rates & Bonds:

  • 10-Year Yield: 4.45% → remains elevated
  • 2-Year Yield: 3.99% → signaling flattening curve
  • Bonds: Bearish setup, with key support at 111.10 and downside risk toward 107

📈 Sector Highlights & Key Stocks

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Surged 16% last week, reclaiming $3T valuation on optimism tied to:
    • AI chip deals with Saudi Arabia and UAE
    • Reversal of Biden’s AI diffusion rule
    • Strong forward capex by Meta ($72B) and Microsoft ($80B)
    • Next earnings: May 28
  • CoreWeave (+22%): Jumped after confirming Nvidia ownership
  • Foot Locker (+85%): Acquired by Dick’s Sporting Goods for $2.4B
  • Walmart (+1.96%): Warns of price hikes from tariffs
  • Tech Caution: European regulatory pressures, particularly on Google & Meta, pose downside risks

💹 Crypto Market

Crypto continues to rally, led by Bitcoin:

AssetPriceDaily MoveTrend
BTC$105,731+2.47%Bullish consolidation above 102K
ETH$2,411-1.42%Strong rebound in recent weeks
XRP$2.40+1.86%Stable trend
  • Bitcoin may target 108K–112K if breakout from triangle holds
  • Ethereum up 53% in a month, closing the performance gap
  • Congress debates stablecoins this week — regulatory clarity could boost sentiment
  • Coinbase offers $20M bounty after recent cyber attack

🏘️ Real Estate & Housing

MetricValue
30-Yr Mortgage6.92%
15-Yr Mortgage6.26%
  • Builder sentiment is soft despite seasonal strength
  • Tariffs added $10,900 to average new home cost
  • Simon Property Group investing $500M to revitalize mall retail

🔍 Commodities & Currencies

  • Gold: Pullback after hitting $3430; holding above $3088 is bullish
  • Silver: Healthy consolidation above $31.56
  • Copper: Bullish bias above $4.47, strong if holding $4.23
  • Crude Oil: Needs to clear $64.75 for uptrend to resume
  • Dollar: Recovering off lows; watch 102.60 for breakout
  • Euro: Weak below 109.5, showing signs of topping

🧮 Other Key Assets

  • Natural Gas: Weak, expected to test lows around $2.98
  • Cocoa: New all-time highs in sight — potential to hit $13,000–14,000
  • Coffee: Rolling over below 380; break below 343 targets 280

📌 Final Thoughts: Market Outlook

Momentum remains bullish, supported by strong technicals, AI-fueled optimism, and key institutional investments (Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia). However, the confluence of Gann reversal dates (May 19–22), overhead resistance, and early signs of internal exhaustion may lead to a temporary pause or pullback.

The 5900–5950 zone is crucial for determining near-term trend continuity.

Watch for signals around:

  • Nvidia’s earnings (May 28)
  • Stablecoin legislation
  • Rates and bond pressure

Markets remain "buy-the-dip" friendly unless critical levels break. Stay nimble.

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