Market Diary

Market Overview: A Glimpse of Recovery Amidst Ongoing Challenges As we conclude the 19th week of 2024 in May, the market displayed a mix of resilience and vulnerability. Over the last eight trading days, the bulls demonstrated strength with six days closing up and only two days down, an encouraging shift following a tough April. Despite this uptick, the three-month trend remains bearish while the ten-day trend has turned positive, suggesting a short-term recovery. However, the closing of the week revealed some weaknesses; despite an overall up day on Friday, bulls struggled to maintain the highs from earlier in the week, and bears managed to exert pressure, pulling the prices down slightly by the day’s close. Technical Analysis: Navigating Mixed Signals The long-term market trend is bucking April's downturn, nearing an all-time high in the S&P 500...

Monthly Market Review: April's Unexpected Decline and May's Outlook Monthly Market Review: April's Unexpected Decline and May's Outlook April: A Downward Shift in the Market April marked the first down month of 2024, with significant declines across major indices. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell by 218 points, the Nasdaq (NDX) dropped by 721 points, and the Russell 2000 (Russel) declined by 150 points. Typically a mild or upward-trending month, April's downturn was influenced by macro-political issues that escalated market volatility, continuing the exuberant price actions from the previous month. May Forecast: Debunking "Sell in May and Go Away" Contrary to the old market adage "Sell in May and go away," the last 10-15 years have not supported this strategy statistically. May tends to be a highly volatile month,...

Weekly Market Review: A Glimmer of Hope Amidst Volatility Weekly Market Review: A Glimmer of Hope Amidst Volatility Market Recovery: Bulls Find Solace After three weeks of a relentless downturn, the market finally saw an uptick this week, offering a much-needed breather for both bears and bulls. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 253 points, while the Nasdaq Composite soared by 645 points. The Russell 2000 Index gained 54 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 132 points, marking one of the best weeks of the year for the SPX and NDX. This positive movement has provided some optimism for bulls hoping for a continuation of this trend. However, breadth indicators remain less confident, signaling that investors should remain vigilant and respond prudently to price actions. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signs Persist Despite the recent uplift, both...

Weekly Market Review: Week 16 of 2024 Weekly Market Review: Week 16 of 2024 Market Overview: A Turn to the Bears In the 16th week of 2024, the market notably favored bearish trends, marking the third consecutive week of declines—a significant pattern highlighted by the formation of a "Three Black Crows" candlestick pattern in the weekly charts. This pattern, consisting of three long-bodied candlesticks that close progressively lower, is a bearish indicator suggesting a strong reversal in the market. Last week, major indices reflected this downturn: The Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 3 points. The Nasdaq Composite was down by 893 points. The Russell 2000 Index declined by 55 points. The S&P 500 dropped by 156 points. Each trading day of the week ended in the red. Volati...

Weekly Market Review: Bears Gain Ground Weekly Market Review: Bears Gain Ground A Shift in Market Trends In the week of 15th, in 2024, bears secured their second consecutive victory, indicating a shift in market momentum. While short-term trends point downwards, the long-term view remains cautiously optimistic. Significant index drops included the Dow by 900 points, Nasdaq by 130 points, Russell by 61 points, and S&P 500 by 50 points, with in the last Friday experiencing its second-largest fall this year with 75 points after January 31 st move of 79 points in 2024. Market in the Lower Range Currently, the SPX lingers within the lower bounds of the first standard deviation range, suggesting a forthcoming week of range-bound or downward movement. Global Sentiments Under Pressure Global...

Weekly Market Overview Weekly Market Wrap: Bears Take the Lead Bearish Winds Blow Through the Indices Last week, the market was painted in shades of red as the bears took over. The Dow Jones fell by 903 points , while the NDX and SPX saw decreases of 130 and 50 points , respectively, and the RUT followed with a 61-point drop. Volatility Looms on the Horizon : 2024 As of now Amidst the market's general upward trend, there is a lingering presence of volatility. A rise in commodity prices, including copper and oil, signals ongoing inflationary pressure, though the market continues to perform well despite high interest rates. The Fed's Tightrope Walk The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of balancing interest rate cuts to prevent bankruptcies during the upcoming commercial real estate mortgage renewal phase. Currently, there are no signi...

Weekly Market Review: Q1 2024 Finale Quarterly Performance Overview As we wrap up the first quarter of 2024, the financial markets have given investors reason for optimism. Completing the 13th week of the year, the markets overall have exceeded expectations. The Nasdaq (NDX) posted an impressive gain of 8.49%, the S&P 500 (SPX) soared with a 10.16% increase, while the Russell 2000 (RUT) saw a more modest rise of 4.81%, indicating a slight lag towards the quarter's end. During the last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) added 331 points to its value. However, the NDX experienced a slight downturn, shedding 49 points, whereas the SPX and RUT were up by 52 and 20 points, respectively, amidst a technology sector lag in a shortened four-day trading week. Market Indicators and Future Outlook The Volatility Index (VIX) remains steady around the 13-point mark, ...

Weekly Market Overview Insights into Last Week's Federal Reserve Decisions and Market Movements Federal Reserve's Decision: A Cautious Stand During its meeting on March 19-20, 2024, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) made the critical decision to keep the federal funds rate steady within the 5.25% to 5.50% range. This decision highlights the Committee's cautious stance in the face of ongoing economic conditions. With a backdrop of solid economic expansion, strong job gains, and a low unemployment rate, the FOMC acknowledged the persistence of inflation above its desired level. The Committee underscored its intent to await greater confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward the 2% target before contemplating any rate adjustments. In updating its economic projections, slight adjustments were made to GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation expectations. ...

Weekly Market Overview Market Performance: A Tale of Bulls and Bears Bearish Undertones Take the Stage In the grand theater of the financial markets, the last week's spectacle began with the Bear holding sway, painting the stage in shades of red. The curtain rose to a somber mood, as Monday's performance featured a deep red candle — a clear sign the Bear had the upper hand. But as the plot unfolded, Tuesday brought a dramatic twist. The Bulls, fueled by an encouraging Consumer Price Index report, leapt onto the stage with a mighty green candle that soared upward, casting a bright glow over the audience's spirits. The Bulls' rally was fierce and swift, a powerful performance that captured the hearts of traders and investors alike. However, the Bear was not to be outdone. With a stealthy grace, it took advantage of the Bulls' complacen...