Market Diary

All of market breadth indicators are over bought.I think a pull back is imminent before a seasonal rally !!

Daily and Weekly Summation indexes are in oversold area and expecting a bullish movement, at least weekly summation index gets 485 level and daily become overbought area.

$NYSI summation index is bottom like June 27 TH level. Most of this level sudden change in trend can expect. I think there is more up side risk than down side. My expectation is VIX could go to 25 level when we approach towards September long week end.

Please refer my 2010 Dec 1, posting. http://fazdane.blogspot.com/2010/12/planning-to-load-up.html

Here is 2011 and 2012 over all market look like according to Bradley Siderograph and Important turn dates for coming 5 Years

NYSI - daily is setting up a bullish movement in the market .. I think market will move until VIX turn to 13-14 range and will chop toward sideways to UP.. Waiting for Thursday to get some puts for "Linked in" !!

From April 29 TH to May 20 TH market is showing lower highs and lower lows in tight range. But when you look at from March 16 TH low to May 20 TH market is doing Higher Highs and Higher Lows Short Term : Bearish . Long Term : Bullish ( Until market break down 1318) Pattern : Hourly chart showing Reverse H&S pattern (Bullish) as well.!! =================================================================== When we look at this in Bollinger band perspective , price is near lower BB and historically when price reach lower BB expect a rally Market seems bullish ================================================================ VIX : VIX is in tight range of 19 -14. Now it is in 17. Market seems 2:3 range with Bearish : Bullish More Bullish than bearish ================================================================= Weekly NYSI : NYSI is showing higher lows and higher highs in tight range. There are more room in bullish side NYSI : Bullish ================================================...

Market was extremely choppy in last two weeks. Will that continue ? I think there are more down side risk than up side !! due to following reasons 1. In SPX intraday chart, showing a Head and Shoulder pattern. Pattern is not valid until price break down 1332. It can happen in next week. 2. VIX is in supporting area (15-17) . Upper resistance is 26 3. Dollar (/DX) is going UP ( when dollar UP equity will go down) 4. Copper is a leader of $SPX, which is going down. If Market is going down from Monday, good support will be 1300. and Next turn could be June 6 TH. (Moon Cycle) HhhhMMMMMMM... Well said, What .. if more buyers show up and bears are hesitate to sell this market ? !! In daily $SPX, now price is in diagonal support. If more buyers show up next up side resistance is 1370. If that happen, Market will be more bullish and see higher highs and lower lows.. My Bullish Bets :PCLN,ISRG,CMG,MA,NFLX,IBM,CF,SINA,SOHU,SLV,NKE My Bearish Bets :GOOG,GS,SPY,FSLR,AEM,X

Starting New cycle towards 1345 ? If this trend continues, next turn will be on 5/16. FYI: All vertical lines in the chart is moon cycle !!

As expected market reached its high and ready to turn again, due to following reasons.. 1. Market pinned long term diagonal resistance 2. VIX pinned last support. (There are more upside risk than down side ) Astro Traders .. 1. Full moon is coming on 18 TH Monday. And more .. Euro is yearly high and ready to move down Dollar is low Bonds are low and ready to turn

Bull run is going to over soon.. I think so because.. 1. VIX is in lower level of 18 right now. If we get 2-3 points down that will be 16-15 level !! Whenever VIX reach 15 level, market have higher tendency to sell off.. In current market volatility conditions, it could happen with in 3-4 trading days.. 2. SPX is reaching higher level, it could go to 1330 or 1334 (worst scenario) and possible sell off on double top pattern. 3. Astro Traders : new moon is coming on April 3rd , so April 4 TH could be a sell off day ..!!

Following chart could be a future look like, by analyzing the price movement of the spider.

Expect a healthy correction in the market. VIX is in support. Healthy correction must be a multiple weeks event ( not one day event like Jan 28 TH) and must be 10-15 % correction. If you watch Astro-traders; Bradley turn date and and a Full moon day is coming on Feb 17 TH and 18 TH. NOTE: ALL BEAR HORMONES WILL ACTIVATE ON FULL MOON DAY !! :) CAUTION : ----------- Protect all your portfolio. Good time to buy puts when VIX is low as 15 and below, If market is not correcting make that in to Bull Put spread. Reminder: ---------- 1. A Market turn date is approaching in Feb 17 TH. 2. Full Moon is on Feb 18 TH 3. Market is not corrected since Sep 2010

Here is the short list for 2011, to Invest and Trade. Please find the suitable setup for trade in the following equities

Next major turn date is in around June -2011 according to Martin A Armstrong Confidence model of economic cycle

This is one forward projection in the market. From couple of other resources as well I saw some sell off is coming on early summer of next year. When trade, please keep this picture in mind and do a downward hedge all the time.

- SPY is in 20 MA support - VIX is in 50 MA resistance - CPCE indicator is in overbought area When Put Call ratio is high like .74, means traders are scared and long more puts than calls. Who ever sold this puts (professionals) will not let this people win. What they will do .. they go and buy the market. There should be a good chance of short squeeze over this position in the market.

What a day.. In one day meet my target.. !! S&P 500 is forming a vague Cup and Handle pattern (Bullish). If market can break through 1228, which is 61.8 % of Up move from last recession !!, this C & H pattern will be valid and market will run ...

Today's price action resolved about 14 days market confusion and broke UP the resistance with lower volume. VIX is also lowered and NYMO also went up. We can expect market can run into 1214 level (April High).

Market almost topping or Breaking out to new level. All markets are its highs. Dow and Nasdaq are leading and on resistance. S&P and Russell are lagging. Today formed a opposing tail pattern, in almost all market showing confusion in traders. What is next ?

Nymo reference - Overbought area 40-60 Now 23

Is this new bull run ? If so it seems like a last Feb low (1040)- April high (1220) kind of run ! Cannot rule out the possibilities, because $NYSI index is forming same pattern this time.

In all major indexes, H&S pattern is forming on top of the chart, will be emphasize the significance of the pull back in equity market.