Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Market Analysis: June 29, 2024
Monthly Analysis: June 2024
As we close the month of June 2024, the stock market has shown a mixed performance. The S&P 500 increased by 182.96 points, indicating a strong month for large-cap stocks. The Nasdaq surged by 997 points, reflecting robust gains in the technology sector. However, the Russell 2000, which represents small-cap stocks, declined by 22.44 points, indicating a slowdown in mid-cap and small-cap stocks. The equally weighted S&P 500 (RSP) remained sideways to down throughout the month, forming a short-term bear flag.
Weekly Analysis: Week of June 24-28, 2024
On a weekly basis, the market displayed a muted performance. The S&P 500 fell by 4 points, showing little movement. The Russell 2000, on the other hand, gained 25 points, suggesting a slight pickup in small-cap stocks. The Nasdaq rose by 43 points, indicating continued strength in the technology sector. The overall trend for the week indicates that while large-cap and tech stocks slowed down, small-cap stocks began to show some strength.
Daily Analysis: Week of June 24-28, 2024
Monday to Friday Breakdown
- Dow Jones:
- June 24 (Monday): Up 260 points
- June 25 (Tuesday): Down 299 points
- June 26 (Wednesday): Up 15 points
- June 27 (Thursday): Up 36 points
- June 28 (Friday): Down 45 points
- Nasdaq:
- June 24 (Monday): Down 192 points
- June 25 (Tuesday): Up 20 points
- June 26 (Wednesday): Up 87 points
- June 27 (Thursday): Up 53 points
- June 28 (Friday): Down 126 points
- Russell 2000:
- June 24 (Monday): Up 8 points
- June 25 (Tuesday): Down 8 points
- June 26 (Wednesday): Down 4 points
- June 27 (Thursday): Up 20 points
- June 28 (Friday): Up 9 points
- S&P 500 (SPX):
- June 24 (Monday): Down 16 points
- June 25 (Tuesday): Up 21 points
- June 26 (Wednesday): Up 8 points
- June 27 (Thursday): Up 4 points
- June 28 (Friday): Down 22 points
Market Breadth and Correlations
- Market Breadth: Closed at a low 12.44, indicating potential choppiness ahead. The market breadth is in Fear at 44 points, suggesting balanced participation between buyers and sellers. The VIX, in the 11 to 14 range, suggested low volatility but with the possibility of sudden spikes.
- Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 44 (fear territory). Last month it was in a similar range, indicating continued caution among investors. A year ago, it was at an extreme greed level of 76, showing a significant shift in sentiment over the year.
Correlations
Currently, the correlation between the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is around 99%, indicating a very high degree of alignment between these two indices. However, the Russell 2000 is deviating from this trend, showing a correlation of approximately 48% with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Volatility (VIX) remains inversely correlated to the market. Bonds are highly correlated with the S&P 500 at 89%. Gold and oil are inversely correlated with the S&P 500, while Bitcoin shows a 19% positive correlation. The USD (US dollar) is negatively correlated at 28%. Copper, which is a leading indicator of market trends, is currently 19% positively correlated with the S&P 500 but is downtrending. This downtrend in copper, which began on May 22nd and continued through June, suggests that the market could experience a slowdown or decline in July and August.
Future Price Action
To provide a clearer picture of what lies ahead, here is the forecasted price range for the upcoming week, including deviations:
| Symbol | Up | Down | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 5522 | 5397 | 62.5 |
| NDX | 19972 | 19390 | 291 |
| Russell | 2081 | 2013 | 34 |
Upcoming Market-Changing News
Next week, several key economic reports are scheduled to be released, including:
- CPI and PPI Data
- Consumer Confidence Report
- Factory Orders
- GDP Report
- Fed Minutes
- Unemployment Rate
These reports are crucial as they provide insights into the health of the economy and can significantly impact market movements. Investors should be vigilant and monitor these releases closely to gauge potential shifts in market trends.
Conclusion
The past month has been a mixed bag for the markets, with strong performances in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but a slowdown in small-cap stocks as indicated by the Russell 2000. The weekly and daily analyses show varied performances, with certain sectors gaining strength while others slow down.
As we move into July, it is essential to remain cautious. Historically, the first trading day of July has been one of the strongest of the year, suggesting a possible surge at the beginning of the month. However, July and August are typically volatile months, with expectations of increased selling activity. The upcoming economic reports will play a crucial role in determining market direction. Understanding the interplay between economic indicators, market trends, and investor sentiment is vital for navigating the current landscape.
The market may face some headwinds in the coming months, but the overall long-term trend remains up. By staying informed and responsive to market signals, investors can make more strategic decisions in this dynamic environment.