Market Diary

Today's Market action seems like a "direction changer" action. In my trading system last Buy signal triggered on 7/15 and today I got the sell signal in daily action chart. My near term lower range is 950

1060 is the 61.8 % retracement in $SPX from top to bottom. expecting 1060 could be a resistance, we can expect IF IF 1020 broke UP... !! In this point anyway UP level is limited.. tighten all the stops..

I am expecting a good correction until first week of Sep. If market didn't correct, It will be very hard to go UP.. It will chop sideways.. [ Sep -Nov] is not good months for sideways strategy as well. I strongly recommend , wait for correction to add new bullish positions. If you have a bullish position tighten your stops !!

After 21 long tranding days chart is showing a red candle in Heikin-Ashi candle chart. William % R is slowing down to -15 area. There are chance to retest 102 level in spy when william R % hit in -20 area..

VIX range is shrinking to 22-26 range. Last year around Aug Sep time also VIX range shrink to 18-22 range and exploded. Is this "The Calm before the Storm" ?

William % R is slowing down in Spider.. New range of the spider is 102-96

I am back from my vacation. Last couple of weeks I couldn't able to post anything even if I am trading. I am thinking Market will retest 950, If 950 holds , market will re test 1000 again and go down. I plotted a mirror chart in green .. Market is following red line right now.

Spider is ascending triangle.. H&S didn't broke the shoulder line and retrace back up to resistance level right now. New range will be 960 -900

VIX is breaking down to new lower ranges..

946 -900 will be the new range for SPX. William % R is breaking UP and going to -20 level.

Here is the daily and hourly chart ranges.. In daily William % R is lowering and Right shoulder of the H&S Pattern fomation is also lowering. If market hold the re test in 900-903 range, that will be another entry point for long puts. VIX is also in 25 range and upper band is also expanding in VIX, is a conformation that market will go down.

If William % R is going down to -90/-100 level next short term support will be 848.. Otherwise going to 900 level ?

I am not used to watch tech. indicators in VIX.. even though when I saw this reverse H&S in VIX I would like to post.. My assumption in VIX, will hit 50 s.. by September.. New range of VIX will be 20- 50..

I think there are good chance to retrace back to 886 level break down to 869. William % R is now in -88 level and can go to -80 level and go back to -90/-100 level (lower level) I am working from India right now .. US Market time in India is 7 PM to 1.30 AM IST ( Indian Standard Time)

At last S&P 500 H&S Neck line broke down.. This is another good entry point for short..

VIX is heading to 33 to Upper band

Monthly bottom Range nailed today.. If william % R is going down and break -80 level, market will create new lows in daily.

The reversal day (to down) of POT is July 8 TH to July 17 th. Current range in POT is 95.57- 89.37

Nailing right shoulder in SPX today.. Wait for break down of neck line to enter in to the short.. if you didn't enter already yesterday I will be working from India next month.. Have a great long weekend.

Today was usual choppy day.. touched the upper band and sold off.. probably will go to lower band tomorrow..

Market still building the right shoulder.. The chopping range right now is 930-896 Watch this range, if any of this range broken, then market sentiments will change. else we will chop in this range

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Yes , Market is slowly building the right shoulder. As long as market didn't break UP 929, it is intact with anticipation.

If market is going UP 929 will good resistance. If 929 is not breaking UP that will be good entry for shorts at least until 888.. If that breaks H&S will be valid stay on your shorts !! else Ka-Ching..

VIX touched 26.39, a major support for VIX for long time; as well as broke the lower bollinger band. Could VIX go down again.. ? historically if VIX touch like this, then there are more chances to bounce back. Good examples - 5/20, 6/11

Beware !! Spider Double top on Hourly chart..

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Resistance 957.89 - 5 times hit in 97, 3 times hit in 2000-2003,2 times hit in 2009 (almost) Supports 882.47 - 1997 - 1 Time, 2000-2003 - 4 Times, 2009- 2 Times 666.56 1997 - 5 Times , 2009 - 1 Time 474.98 - 1994 - 4 Times

Today open up and touched the Upper band of Darvas Box reverse back. When you look at the William % R , it retraced 50 %. Good sign for BEARS

Today kind of breathing day . After yesterday's Push down, Bears need to breath. There are no Bulls left out to Push this market up. Probably Bulls were waiting to touch 878 region to get back in. Anyway William % R touched the lower band, that is significant bear signal.

After today's move when you look at it spider is forming a Head & Shoulder pattern.

Hopefully we will retest last low and recover from there, will make W shaped recovery. If that is true we can see 1000 on S&P, before end of this year. June- Oct will be low volume to down kind of movement is expecting.

When we over analyze things, we shouldn't forget our basics ..

Today's close become clear that we are going to bearish mode. Acceleration mid band broke to down and Williams % R towards down . (cross the mid point)

BXM - CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index - Covered Call Index RUH - CBOE S&P 500 Three-Month Realized Volatility Index CLL - CBOE S&P 500 95-110 Collar Index BXY - CBOE S&P 500 2% OTM BuyWrite Index BXN - CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Index BXD - CBOE DJIA BuyWrite Index BXR - CBOE Russell 2000 BuyWrite Index PUT - CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index VIX - CBOE Volatility Index VXD - CBOE DJIA Volatility Index RVX - CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index VXO - CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index VXN - CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index VXV - CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index OVX - CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GVZ - CBOE Gold Volatility Index EVZ - CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index VPD - CBOE VIX Premium Strategy Index VPN - CBOE Capped VIX Premium Strategy Index CYX - CBOE China Index

Spider : Yellow and Green Mirrors lead two possibities GS FAZ POT

I posted on May 29 th there are huge call volume in VIX for June. BIG BOYS are interested 37 VIX before June 19 TH.

Market is turning. In my indicator screen even though closing bar didn't broke down, when we look at the Williams % R it is going down. In VIX chart, vix going UP towards upper bollinger band. now you can see bollinger band will expand very fast in coming days because of the expiration.

The theory behind the mirror chart is "History can repeat itself". so pick some time frame and repeat and chart that same time frame. there is no guarantee that it will repeat. I used to watch what happened when we made a new low and I am thinking market always retest that low or near that low in future. If so I need to know approximate timing of that. How I will do that. go to the last time when we were in this point and do a same pattern. Nothing is guarantee.. when we read this all with overbought/oversold indicators and support and resistance, it will make sense. "DECISIONS MADE UP FRONT HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY" "TAKE THE TIME TO MAKE THE BEST ONES"

I want to post this mirror chart, which I created second week of March..