Market Diary

Market still building the right shoulder.. The chopping range right now is 930-896 Watch this range, if any of this range broken, then market sentiments will change. else we will chop in this range

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Yes , Market is slowly building the right shoulder. As long as market didn't break UP 929, it is intact with anticipation.

If market is going UP 929 will good resistance. If 929 is not breaking UP that will be good entry for shorts at least until 888.. If that breaks H&S will be valid stay on your shorts !! else Ka-Ching..

VIX touched 26.39, a major support for VIX for long time; as well as broke the lower bollinger band. Could VIX go down again.. ? historically if VIX touch like this, then there are more chances to bounce back. Good examples - 5/20, 6/11

Beware !! Spider Double top on Hourly chart..

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Resistance 957.89 - 5 times hit in 97, 3 times hit in 2000-2003,2 times hit in 2009 (almost) Supports 882.47 - 1997 - 1 Time, 2000-2003 - 4 Times, 2009- 2 Times 666.56 1997 - 5 Times , 2009 - 1 Time 474.98 - 1994 - 4 Times

Today open up and touched the Upper band of Darvas Box reverse back. When you look at the William % R , it retraced 50 %. Good sign for BEARS

Today kind of breathing day . After yesterday's Push down, Bears need to breath. There are no Bulls left out to Push this market up. Probably Bulls were waiting to touch 878 region to get back in. Anyway William % R touched the lower band, that is significant bear signal.

After today's move when you look at it spider is forming a Head & Shoulder pattern.

Hopefully we will retest last low and recover from there, will make W shaped recovery. If that is true we can see 1000 on S&P, before end of this year. June- Oct will be low volume to down kind of movement is expecting.

When we over analyze things, we shouldn't forget our basics ..

Today's close become clear that we are going to bearish mode. Acceleration mid band broke to down and Williams % R towards down . (cross the mid point)

BXM - CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index - Covered Call Index RUH - CBOE S&P 500 Three-Month Realized Volatility Index CLL - CBOE S&P 500 95-110 Collar Index BXY - CBOE S&P 500 2% OTM BuyWrite Index BXN - CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Index BXD - CBOE DJIA BuyWrite Index BXR - CBOE Russell 2000 BuyWrite Index PUT - CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index VIX - CBOE Volatility Index VXD - CBOE DJIA Volatility Index RVX - CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index VXO - CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index VXN - CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index VXV - CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index OVX - CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index GVZ - CBOE Gold Volatility Index EVZ - CBOE EuroCurrency Volatility Index VPD - CBOE VIX Premium Strategy Index VPN - CBOE Capped VIX Premium Strategy Index CYX - CBOE China Index

Spider : Yellow and Green Mirrors lead two possibities GS FAZ POT

I posted on May 29 th there are huge call volume in VIX for June. BIG BOYS are interested 37 VIX before June 19 TH.

Market is turning. In my indicator screen even though closing bar didn't broke down, when we look at the Williams % R it is going down. In VIX chart, vix going UP towards upper bollinger band. now you can see bollinger band will expand very fast in coming days because of the expiration.

The theory behind the mirror chart is "History can repeat itself". so pick some time frame and repeat and chart that same time frame. there is no guarantee that it will repeat. I used to watch what happened when we made a new low and I am thinking market always retest that low or near that low in future. If so I need to know approximate timing of that. How I will do that. go to the last time when we were in this point and do a same pattern. Nothing is guarantee.. when we read this all with overbought/oversold indicators and support and resistance, it will make sense. "DECISIONS MADE UP FRONT HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON PRODUCTIVITY" "TAKE THE TIME TO MAKE THE BEST ONES"

I want to post this mirror chart, which I created second week of March..

I was watching two indicators for market turn. Spider must break and stay 920 level and VIX must up above the 29-30 level. Today both satisfied. tomorrow as well we see some sell off like this, we can confirm that market range broke and trade in lower range. Otherwise market will turn up and hit on 958 level. "It is Swing Traders market".

Apart from normal bullish day, today market sold towards close. Is that new bearish sentiment ? I think market is in a tight range bound right now. 956-929 is the range. That is what we saw today. As soon as market touched 956.26 market sold off. When we look at the VIX chart today VIX broke the lower Bolli. band. What we should look at , VIX must be up more than 31 (mid of Boll. Band) and market must break lower than 929, then only our direct puts will work; else spread is the best strategy.

Bulls trying to hold off the market, even market open 13 points up and sold off about 12 points and closed to 3 points down. wide swing today..

All indicators are diverging with market. Market seems to be slowing down.

The U.S. economy probably will emerge from the recession by September, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said. "Krugman said that he would not be surprised if the U.S. recession, which began in December 2007, ended in August or September this year. But job losses were likely to continue into 2011, meaning "the period of a depressed economy" could last until 2013 or 2014, he said. " Is this possible ???? check out the chart..

Market try to Pull down and in last hour mass buy order came and market rip UP and closed to 939.13. If we want to see a down movement, market have to close 929 level. "Trade what you see"

As we konw, this is a range bound market. We almost completed 3 Full moon cycle in this rally . Next full moon day is Monday the 8TH. As you noticed in the chart the green plot is mirror chart of the S&P when we came down. from March 9 th onwards market is following this chart about 80-85%. You can see a big down turn in the market from June 9 th -19 th. Not only that all of the market sentiments are as right now is averbought condition. when a sell off comes, most of the people will take profit. If you have profit in your portfolio, Please Please Hedge with some Put or sell some call against that towards resistance. It is not worth to take risk in this stage. Have a good week end. Enjoy

GS Rallied from 75 to 150 from March 6 th. In this time Institutions have to re allocate thier portfolio. Most probably you can see a sell off

It seems like Bulls are still in control. tomorrow expecting a down day. my extectation is, for healthy market need to correct. else market will go sideways for this month

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WHAT YOU WILL DO WHEN A 200 POINT DOWN CORRECTION IN S&P 500 WITH IN A WEEK !!! ?

Today was a neutral day for the market, which is confirming new trading range for shorter period. From March onwards market is trading in new ranges in all months So June's Trading range will be 923-950. Watch out June 10 th. an energy turning point is coming.

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Tomorrow is critical day. If we start below 93 and close below 93 in SPY, a major reversal pattern will form. So Bulls will Abandon today's rally. Other wise, if we start above 93 and stay above, my all Puts will change to Bull put spread :) Note : VIX UP 1.12 even market up 23 points in Spider. When you look at the momentum Blue,Red and Green are conjoint in 75 level.

HAVE A GREAT WEEK END.