Mid-Term Election Year Market Insight A review of monthly S&P 500 performance across the last ten U.S. mid-term election years reveals a consistent pattern of elevated volatility, deep mid-year drawdowns, and powerful late-year recoveries . Mid-term years commonly begin with weakness, as January and February frequently tilt negative due to policy uncertainty, tightening financial conditions, and shifts in fiscal expectations ahead of elections. The heatmap highlights that the second and third quarters (May through September) tend to be the most fragile part of the cycle, often producing clusters of materially negative returns. This behavior was especially pronounced in historically stressed mid-term years such as 2002, 1998, 2010, 2018, and 2022 , when monthly declines reached as low as –8% to –14%. Despite these mid-year selloffs, the data strongly confirms the well-known mid-term election year rebound effect . After September, markets typically transition into a p...
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