Market Diary

Next major turn date is in around June -2011 according to Martin A Armstrong Confidence model of economic cycle

This is one forward projection in the market. From couple of other resources as well I saw some sell off is coming on early summer of next year. When trade, please keep this picture in mind and do a downward hedge all the time.

- SPY is in 20 MA support - VIX is in 50 MA resistance - CPCE indicator is in overbought area When Put Call ratio is high like .74, means traders are scared and long more puts than calls. Who ever sold this puts (professionals) will not let this people win. What they will do .. they go and buy the market. There should be a good chance of short squeeze over this position in the market.

What a day.. In one day meet my target.. !! S&P 500 is forming a vague Cup and Handle pattern (Bullish). If market can break through 1228, which is 61.8 % of Up move from last recession !!, this C & H pattern will be valid and market will run ...

Today's price action resolved about 14 days market confusion and broke UP the resistance with lower volume. VIX is also lowered and NYMO also went up. We can expect market can run into 1214 level (April High).

Market almost topping or Breaking out to new level. All markets are its highs. Dow and Nasdaq are leading and on resistance. S&P and Russell are lagging. Today formed a opposing tail pattern, in almost all market showing confusion in traders. What is next ?

Nymo reference - Overbought area 40-60 Now 23

Is this new bull run ? If so it seems like a last Feb low (1040)- April high (1220) kind of run ! Cannot rule out the possibilities, because $NYSI index is forming same pattern this time.

In all major indexes, H&S pattern is forming on top of the chart, will be emphasize the significance of the pull back in equity market.

Market rally continued this week, reached a short term resistance point due to the following reasons. 1. VIX is in good 200MA support point 2. SPX has lot of resistance in 1100 area 3. NYMO index reached over bought area 4. NYHL reached 200 MA resistance Expect a choppy to down movement in next week.

Being market up for about 7 days,right now VIX is in double bottom , ES is in short term resistance & copper is slowing down. Most probably we can see some slow down in the market. not only that market is waiting for to move GOOG s earning on tomorrow after close.

VIX is under 30 s and spider is above 106 (hold support) from here, expected move is UP and spider resistance could be 115.

SPX is holding the support.. This is the key support tested multiple time overtime. VIX today hit on 30 s and sellers came and brought VIX back to 33 s .

BP after the spill: Bankrupt, bought, or business as usual? From Fortune BP Broke the support !!!

BP pin point support today 32.19. There could be a bounce towards 39 level .

All the US Market indexes have resistance on 50 day moving average. US Dollar is the only one going UP..

Copper broke the support and going down, Gold is in a Cup and Handle pattern (a Bullish pattern) and S&P is in support. As of today this support is holding. As far as there are no reversal signs yet from copper market side, not only that it seems like very bullish sign in gold side as well, means market can go down to 950 level from here.

Market breadth indicator is showing upper lows when market closed lower today. This kind of divergence showed in March as well, when breadth made lower lows, market was making new highs. If breadth is not making new lows, we can see sudden change in market direction. Market is kind of "No Man's Land" area right now.

Summation index is over sold area and turning around in short term. When we look at the long term a down channel is forming from 2009 - June onwards.

A possible Head and Shoulder is forming in spider long term. If spider didn't break through 115 resistance ( Now spider is in 106), It could be a head and shoulder pattern (bearish). Note : This kind of pattern formed in 2009 summer, Market watchers saw, due to lack of volume in summer and long term bearish nature in the market, everybody expected, market will go down. pattern failure caused market rallied from 87 to 117. "Trade what you see " not your expectations..

Diamonds, Qs and Spider, all 3 markets are showing buy mode in hourly. Hourly linear regression channel showing up movement and price is in lower channel. Most probably we will get buy signal in all markets in the next week.

It seems like copper is in good support, Gold is in resistance and spider is also in support congestion area.. I think, in this point, market is reversing slowly to upside.

There are a valid Head and Shoulder in VIX and Inverse H&S in SPX. But ... In VIX there is a good support in 30 level. Sellers are showing their muscle when VIX get in 30 s. Buyers don't have enough reasons to buy. Probably market will be choppy in whole summer. "SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY"

Copper start to turn and got buy signal on 24 TH and S&P got 27 TH. When market going to turn down as well copper used to lead the market. It is worth while to watch copper as a leading indicator for the market.