Market Diary

S&P 500 reached  50% of Fibonacci extension right now. Expectation was price will reach into 61.8 % to 1429. Current action seems like, could reverse from 50 %

According to Bradley Siderograph, rest of the year is down turn and from Feb 2013, a rally is coming up !!

Current Range 1360-1390

A flag pattern is showing in Gold Futures. Historically when a bullish move over, gold used to consolidate 250-325 points down. Now gold consolidated into 1927 to 1606 .  Most probably with in couple of weeks time investors move money from equity to gold and bonds again.

Market is bullish, Probably this will be the last bullish action in 2012. Following are the probable targets in SPX,NDX and RUT.

NYMO indicator is in overbought area (87). 60-70  is  ideal reversal area. Market could chop around current area or small pull back is imminent.

Market could be in 1325 -1240 range. Market is in resistance in anticipation of  Europe problem will fix in this weekend. If genie come out of the lamp and fix everything this weekend, then market will be in new range. Otherwise, market will open low on Monday and chop towards to 1240 range in next week. Even if market closed high today, VIX  didn't change much, Bond went UP, Dollar went UP, Euro went Down.This is unusual, due to triple witching.

NYMO indicator reached in reversal area.

SPX Range is in 1345-1255. Now SPX trading middle of the range.  Good support to buy equity is 1260-1270 area of SPX. Expecting more choppy action until then.

1300 could good support for SPX, There will be choppy action in or around 1300. VIX could pullback towards 19-20 level NYMO is in -100 level. In this level NYMO used to reverse, means market could reverse or chop around

A Cup and Handle formation in long term 30 yr Bond. Bond re tested and confirmed that break out is solid and ready to go up. Bond market confirmed today with new high. What that means to equity market.. Equity market is inversely  proportional  to the bond market. If bond market is going up, then equity market will go down and Dollar will go up. The other interesting incident is bond market is higher than 2009 March high. !! That means right now, investor confidence is lower than  March 2009. Most of the  money flows towards bond market. My expectation is market will go down until October 2012 with slight UP movement in mid of  June to July.

Possible ranges are 1400-1350 , if market break 1350,  S&P could free fall 20 points to 1330-1300 range.

ES Futures are breaking down the neck line of H&S pattern today after 3/12/12 break UP. Next support in ES is 1350

SPX Pinned 2011 High.

First Support -1330-1310 Second Support -1250-1240 Third Support -1210 Hopefully S&P will not go beyond that, because of Presidential election year. Expect a Bullish movement from June onwards at least until November.

All indicators and All market experts are saying "Market need a healthy correction" to sustain bullish movement. Probably that's why market is not selling off. Market need to test the "pain threshold"of all the bears before its next move !

SPX is hitting on resistance and shy to move on ! If market break down, 1260 can be the first support and 1220/1210 area will be the next .

SPX is getting into a congestion area. More choppy actions can expect in 1314-1330 area. Expect a sell off as well from this area !!

According to Bradley siderograph, there will be a bullish movement starting from 12/29 - 3/16/12. Will this bullish action continue until March ? Today's price action broke the resistance, Next resistance is 1290/1300 area

According to Stocks and Commodities magazine - April 2011, Market future is as follows..

Here is the 2012 major turn dates. Expecting 12/12/11 to 12/28/11 a down turn. 12/28/11 to 3/16/12 a up turn ..

More sellers in 1260/1270 areas. Short term range is 1230-1270 right now. Will S&P re test 1170 again before going towards 1310 resistance ?

Seasonal rally started ? Can S&P clear 1250/1270 this week !! If so next resistance will be 1320-1340

Congestion in 1200-1190 area

Watching close, how this SPX Bullish pattern will work out. Seasonally it is bullish time. Only Chaos is Europe. ;)

All of market breadth indicators are over bought.I think a pull back is imminent before a seasonal rally !!

Daily and Weekly Summation indexes are in oversold area and expecting a bullish movement, at least weekly summation index gets 485 level and daily become overbought area.

$NYSI summation index is bottom like June 27 TH level. Most of this level sudden change in trend can expect. I think there is more up side risk than down side. My expectation is VIX could go to 25 level when we approach towards September long week end.

Please refer my 2010 Dec 1, posting. http://fazdane.blogspot.com/2010/12/planning-to-load-up.html

Here is 2011 and 2012 over all market look like according to Bradley Siderograph and Important turn dates for coming 5 Years

NYSI - daily is setting up a bullish movement in the market .. I think market will move until VIX turn to 13-14 range and will chop toward sideways to UP.. Waiting for Thursday to get some puts for "Linked in" !!

From April 29 TH to May 20 TH market is showing lower highs and lower lows in tight range. But when you look at from March 16 TH low to May 20 TH market is doing Higher Highs and Higher Lows Short Term : Bearish . Long Term : Bullish ( Until market break down 1318) Pattern : Hourly chart showing Reverse H&S pattern (Bullish) as well.!! =================================================================== When we look at this in Bollinger band perspective , price is near lower BB and historically when price reach lower BB expect a rally Market seems bullish ================================================================ VIX : VIX is in tight range of 19 -14. Now it is in 17. Market seems 2:3 range with Bearish : Bullish More Bullish than bearish ================================================================= Weekly NYSI : NYSI is showing higher lows and higher highs in tight range. There are more room in bullish side NYSI : Bullish ================================================...