Market Diary

Spider hit 6 times in 107 level to break the resistance. Can spider break this time ?

GS has lot of Activity for October. Probably due to earning report on 14 th .. I see more on call side today..

After double top VIX last week , Is VIX heading towards 20 s to make new low for the year ? Let us see. As trader we have to be careful when VIX hit 22 and down.

If we get good earnings report this Quarter, there are some possibility push this market Up and all fund managers show their muscle power.

There are more open interest in GS OCT 170,165 and 160 Puts, so when I look at the option pain for GS it is 170. Make sense. Beware there will be a price manipulation in GS during couple of days.

As chart is showing, we are in a Bullish channel from March 9 Th. Always testing lower channel and going UP. In this time as well, If market is going UP tomorrow, this trend will continue until 1150 The Other chance is push back to 1039, (because we had huge run in last two days) and going up to 1150 When going down, if Market broke down to 1020, then we will be changing the trend. We are going in to the earning season from tomorrow.. Wait and see. "Decisions made up front have greatest impact on productivity. Only Trade what you see"

VIX closed just above the support, there are good chance to VIX can go UP couple of days.

Today rallied and sold off and came back 75 % of the high. Market closed on diagonal trend line. Due to diagonal resistance there are good chance, market will sold off tomorrow. If S&P manage to break UP this trend line, that will be good entry for bullish trade.

VIX is double top in this week. There are good amount of chance that VIX will drop to 24 range.

Thursday main support broke in S&P500 and went down Friday, Probably there are good chance to retest 1040 level of S&P 500 and come down. If 1040 level resist the movement upwards, we can see some good down days like Thursday, Support I see, as 979. And that will become good H&S pattern for S&P 500.

When I am doing my weekly analysis, I came across long term DOW, It seems to be interesting. Every Long Bull market there are a 15-20 years of sideways period. If market went away from the trend line eventually market will adjust by itself to catch up by trend line. Now Trend line is 4103 for Dow or we have to go through 10 more years sideways to catch up the trend line. What will happen ? Wait and see...

I want to bring this chart when spider hit on support..

An ascending triangle is forming in DIA and SPY FYI : All formation is valid until it broke UP

Spider is trying to hit about 5 days in same resistance 107.55 to get over. SPY is in tight resistance vertically and diagonally. Either get over or Surrender..

A Cup and Handle is forming OIH. The pattern will be valid only if Breaks UP 123.43

TRADE IDEA FROM MARK ==================== I wanted to offer a trade idea and get your feedback. It’s a small $1 iron condor spread on the IWM September quarterly’s, so it’s over in a relatively short time, but has a potential decent return. Although the IWM has been going up pretty strong the past two weeks (see chart below), I’m expecting a leveling out or lower rate of increase over the next 15 days which should keep it within the IC range. The credit is $.28, not a huge amount, but still decent for the risk. Remarks : Looks good to me. Range of IWM by 10/1 , I am expecting between 61 -58

If GLD Broke UP 100, chart will be valid inverse H&S for Gold..

Spider Getting into resistance again. If market broke UP, that will be a break of 61.8 % resistance and can go higher . follow the diagonal support

Market closed on resistance. It will be interesting next week. -= HAVE GREAT LONG WEEKEND =-

When I was doing a long term analysis (10 Yrs) of S&P 500, I noticed that in 2000-2003 recession, S&P 500 down from 1552.87 to 938.02 and retrace to 1172.89 (38.2 %) and went back to 765.89 (18 % lower than the previous low), Market retested this support couple of times in 2003 . If History repeat by itself this time , IF IF... in 2009 Market touched 666 and went back to 1040 level (38.2 %) and coming down (if so).. If Market came down like last recession , we can expect around 18 % lower than 666 approximately 540 level !!! Will that happen ? What you think .. I need active participation from each and every one from the group, What is your opinion.. ?

VIX is holding 28-32 Range and S&P going for diagonal support.. We can see some tug of war in 978 area with Bulls and Bears.. If Bear won, then S&P will go to 870 area by end of September.

Today's Market action seems like a "direction changer" action. In my trading system last Buy signal triggered on 7/15 and today I got the sell signal in daily action chart. My near term lower range is 950

1060 is the 61.8 % retracement in $SPX from top to bottom. expecting 1060 could be a resistance, we can expect IF IF 1020 broke UP... !! In this point anyway UP level is limited.. tighten all the stops..

I am expecting a good correction until first week of Sep. If market didn't correct, It will be very hard to go UP.. It will chop sideways.. [ Sep -Nov] is not good months for sideways strategy as well. I strongly recommend , wait for correction to add new bullish positions. If you have a bullish position tighten your stops !!

After 21 long tranding days chart is showing a red candle in Heikin-Ashi candle chart. William % R is slowing down to -15 area. There are chance to retest 102 level in spy when william R % hit in -20 area..

VIX range is shrinking to 22-26 range. Last year around Aug Sep time also VIX range shrink to 18-22 range and exploded. Is this "The Calm before the Storm" ?

William % R is slowing down in Spider.. New range of the spider is 102-96

I am back from my vacation. Last couple of weeks I couldn't able to post anything even if I am trading. I am thinking Market will retest 950, If 950 holds , market will re test 1000 again and go down. I plotted a mirror chart in green .. Market is following red line right now.

Spider is ascending triangle.. H&S didn't broke the shoulder line and retrace back up to resistance level right now. New range will be 960 -900

VIX is breaking down to new lower ranges..

946 -900 will be the new range for SPX. William % R is breaking UP and going to -20 level.

Here is the daily and hourly chart ranges.. In daily William % R is lowering and Right shoulder of the H&S Pattern fomation is also lowering. If market hold the re test in 900-903 range, that will be another entry point for long puts. VIX is also in 25 range and upper band is also expanding in VIX, is a conformation that market will go down.

If William % R is going down to -90/-100 level next short term support will be 848.. Otherwise going to 900 level ?

I am not used to watch tech. indicators in VIX.. even though when I saw this reverse H&S in VIX I would like to post.. My assumption in VIX, will hit 50 s.. by September.. New range of VIX will be 20- 50..